I want it

Determinants of mortality in naval units during the 1918—19 influenza pandemic

Prof G Dennis Shanks MD a b , Michael Waller MSc b, Alison MacKenzie MPH b, John F Brundage MD c

Summary

In 1918, two waves of epidemic influenza arose with very different clinical phenotypes. During the first wave, infection rates were high but mortality was low. During the second wave, high numbers of deaths occurred and mortality differed 30—100 times among seemingly similar groups of affected adults, but the reason for this variation is unclear. In 1918, the crews of most warships and some island populations were affected by influenza during both waves of infection and had no or very few deaths during the second wave. However, some warships and island populations were not affected during the first wave of infection and had high mortality during the second wave. These findings suggest that infection during the first wave protected against death, but not infection, during the second wave. If so, the two waves of infection were probably caused by antigenically distinct influenza viruses—not by one virus that suddenly increased in pathogenicity between the first and second waves. These findings are relevant to modern concerns that the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus could suddenly increase in lethality.

Оценка преобразований для регрессий

• Estimating Optimal Transformations for Multiple Regression and Correlation
• Leo Breiman and Jerome H. Friedman
• Journal of the American Statistical Association
  Vol. 80, No. 391 (Sep., 1985), pp. 580-598
  (article consists of 19 pages)
• Published by: American Statistical Association
• Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2288473

 

регистр ВИЧ+ иностранцев в США

надо иметь

http://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473309910701006/fulltext?rss=yes

must see

Helleringer, S. P. and H.-P. Kohler (2005).

"Social Networks, Perceptions of Risk, and Changing Attitudes Towards HIV/AIDS: New Evidence from a Longitudinal Study Using Fixed-Effects Analysis."

Population studies 59(3): 265-282.

art register

Регистр результатов ВРТ в России. Отчет за 2007 г.

В. С. Корсак

Nazvanie organizatsii, vedushcheĭ registr: Rossiĭskaia Assotsiatsiia Reproduktsii Cheloveka Adres organizatsii: 199034 Sankt-Peterburg, Mendeleevskaia liniia, 3/4ATel.: (812) 328-9822, faks: (812) 328-2251, E-mail: rahr@mcrm.ru

Вся статья

rebeh

О репродуктивном поведении первокурсников учреждений профессионального образования Омска

З. Б. Тасова 

Кафедра общественного здоровья и здравоохранения с курсом истории медицины и биомедицинской этики Омской государственной медицинской академии

Представлены результаты научного исследования репродуктивного поведения 898 студентов-первокурсников учреждений профессионального образования Омска. Получена информация об источниках и уровне информированности о гигиене половой жизни. Оценена осведомленность о функционировании «Молодежного центра», в котором оказывают бесплатную медицинскую помощь. Студентам была предоставлена возможность высказать замечания в адрес службы по работе с молодежью, которые были учтены при разработке профилактических мероприятий.
Связь с авторами: E-mail: ztasova@yandex.ru

Ключевые слова: студенты, репродуктивное поведение, гигиена половой жизни

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mamo

Эффективность современных организационных технологий в профилактике и снижении материнской смертности в Российской Федерации

Е. В. Гусева  О. С. Филиппов 

Департамент развития медицинской помощи детям и службы родовспоможения Министерства здравоохранения и социального развития Российской Федерации, Москва

Проведен анализ системы организации медицинской помощи женщинам во время беременности и родов в субъектах Российской Федерации. Установлено, что показатель материнской смертности выше в регионах с большой долей родов (более 30%) в учреждениях родовспоможения I уровня, а также в субъектах, где отсутствуют областные (краевые, республиканские) учреждения родовспоможения. Показана важная роль акушерских реанимационно-консультативных центров в оказании экстренной медицинской помощи женщинам с осложнениями беременности и родов, особенно в регионах с низкой плотностью населения. Определена необходимость совершенствования организационных мероприятий по профилактике и снижению материнской смертности в Российской Федерации.
Связь с авторами: 1E-mail: GusevaEV@rosminzdrav.ru

Ключевые слова: экстренная акушерская помощь, акушерские реанимационно-консультативные центры

Вся статья

wanted

посмертное про Минделя Шепса
там же, на той же странице -- влияние абортов на рождаемость в США = must see

need this

http://muse.jhu.edu/login?uri=/journals/demography/v047/47.1.retherford.pdf


Demography
Volume 47, Number 1, February 2010
E-ISSN: 1533-7790 Print ISSN: 0070-3370
DOI: 10.1353/dem.0.0087


Robert Retherford
Naohiro Ogawa
Rikiya Matsukura
Hassan Eini-Zinab
Multivariate Analysis of Parity Progression–Based Measures of the Total Fertility Rate and Its Components
Demography - Volume 47, Number 1, February 2010, pp. 97-124

This article describes a methodology for applying a discrete-time survival model—the complementary log-log model—to estimate effects of socioeconomic variables on (1) the total fertility rate and its components and (2) trends in the total fertility rate and its components. For the methodology to be applicable, the total fertility rate (TFR) must be calculated from parity progression ratios (PPRs). The components of the TFR are PPRs, the total marital fertility rate (TMFR), and the TFR itself as measures of the quantum of fertility, and mean and median ages at first marriage and mean and median closed birth intervals by birth order as measures of the tempo or timing of fertility. The focus is on effects of predictor variables on these measures rather than on coefficients, which are often difficult to interpret in the complex models that are considered. The methodology is applicable to both period and cohort data. It is illustrated by application to data from the 1993, 1998, and 2003 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in the Philippines.

надо прочитать

статистическая теория эыолюции
http://www.jstor.org/pss/2277618

активистам гражданского общества

Демография ВИЧ, вып 2 на демоскопе

«Демография ВИЧ» на demography.ru

улыбнуло

Денисов Б.П., Сакевич В.И. Динамика эпидемии ВИЧ/СПИД // Социс.- 2004.- № 1.- С. 75-85.
Автори статті торкаються теми смертельної хвороби людства (ВІЛ/СНІД), простежуючидинаміку її розвитку. З "демографічної точки зору "немає підстав наголошувати, що епідемія ВІЛ/СНІД в регіоні має розвиватись аналогічно з європейським, африканським або іншими варіантами". На сьогодні регіональною особливістю епідемії є її концентрація серед широких верств молоді, що споживає ін'єкційні наркотичні засоби.

reminder

“Crisis Among Crises Among Crises: HIV/AIDS in the Eyes of Russian Health Care Experts,” co-authored Theodore P. Gerber, Problems of Post-Communism, Vol. 52, No. 4, July/August 2005.

romhiv

This study is an investigation of the effect of disclosure of a child's own HIV infection status on death and CD4 decline in a cohort of 325 HIV-infected Romanian children receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). A retrospective database analysis was conducted. Data
from a nearly three-year period were examined. Children who were aware of their HIV diagnosis were compared with those who were not aware. We found significant associations between not knowing the HIV diagnosis and death, and not knowing the HIV diagnosis and disease progression defined as either death or CD4 decline. Our results imply that in the context of HAART, knowledge of one's own HIV infection status is associated with delayed HIV disease progression.

The influence of disclosure of HIV diagnosis on time to disease progression in a cohort of Romanian children and teens
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09540120701367124
AIDS Care. 2007 Oct;19(9):1088-1094.
Ferris M | Burau K | Schweitzer AM | Mihale S | Murray N

insurance

ORIGINAL RESEARCH

Changes in Prescription Contraceptive Use, 1995–2002

The Effect of Insurance Status

Kelly R. Culwell, MD¹ and Joe Feinglass, PhD²

From the ¹Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology and ²Division of General Internal Medicine and Institute for Healthcare Studies, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois.

OBJECTIVE: To examine changes in prescription contraception use between 1995 and 2002 by insurance status among women at risk for unintended pregnancy.

METHODS: Data from the National Survey of Family Growth, including 4,767 women at risk of unintended pregnancy in 1995 and 3,569 in 2002, were used to evaluate changes in primary contraception methods by health insurance status and year of survey. Logistic regression models tested differences in the likelihood of prescription contraceptive use among privately insured, publicly insured, and uninsured women in each year, after controlling for age, race and ethnicity, education, income, employment, marital status, number of children, religion, and self reported overall health.

RESULTS: Overall prescription contraceptive use increased between 1995 and 2002 by 3% (48.9% to 51.9%, P=.049). Nonuse of contraception also increased (11.6% to 16.1%, P<.001). The change in the likelihood of prescription contraceptive use was greatest and only significant among privately insured women (+5.5%, P=.002). In multiple regression analysis, women in 1995 were 10% less likely to report use of prescription contraceptives compared with women in 2002 (relative risk 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.82–0.98), and uninsured women were more than 20% less likely to report prescription contraceptive use compared with privately insured women (relative risk 0.78, 95% confidence interval 0.67–0.90).

CONCLUSION: Prescription contraceptive use increased most significantly among privately insured women between 1995 and 2002, potentially reflecting state mandates enacted during that period requiring contraceptive coverage by private insurers. It is important for clinicians to understand these differences and address issues of insurance coverage with patients when discussing contraceptive options.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III

Obstetrics & Gynecology 2007;110:1371-1378
© 2007 by The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists

reminder

An Inevitable HIV Epidemic in Russia?

HIV infection is spreading rapidly in eastern Europe and central Asia, through both drug use and sexual transmission. These investigators tested disenfranchised populations in Moscow . . .

— Anna Wald, MD, MPH

Published in Journal Watch Women's Health August 23, 2005

Covering Lancet 2005 Jul 2

reminder

Association of oral contraceptive use, other contraceptive methods, and infertility with ovarian cancer risk
(Abstract; subscription needed for full text; Global) http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwm157
American Journal of Epidemiology. 2007 Oct 15;166(8):894-901.
Tworoger S | Fairfield K | Colditz G | Rosner B | Hankinson S

Although oral contraceptives are protective for ovarian cancer, it is unclear how long this protection persists. The authors prospectively assessed this question as well as associations of other, less studied contraceptive methods (tubal ligation, rhythm method, diaphragm, condoms, intrauterine device, foam, spousal vasectomy) and infertility with ovarian cancer risk among 107,900 participants in the US Nurses' Health Study. During 28 years of follow-up (1976-2004), 612 cases of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer were confirmed. Duration of oral contraceptive use was inversely associated with risk (p-trend = 0.02), but no clear trend was observed for years since last use. However, for women using oral contraceptives for greater than 5 years, the rate ratio for ovarian cancer for less than or equal to 20 years since last use was 0.58 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.39, 0.87), with no association found for greater than 20 years since last use (rate ratio (RR) = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.61, 1.39). Tubal ligation (RR = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.50, 0.87) was associated with decreased ovarian cancer risk, whereas intrauterine device use (RR = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.08, 2.85) and infertility (RR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.75) were associated with an increased risk. Results suggest that the beneficial effect of oral contraceptives on ovarian cancer risk attenuates after 20 years since last use. Furthermore, tubal ligation, intrauterine device use, and infertility were associated with ovarian cancer risk.