| An integrated approach to cause-of-death analysis: cause-deleted life tables and decompositions of life expectancy|
Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez, Samuel H. Preston, Vladimir Canudas-Romo
research article Open Access
[ Abstract | Full Text (PDF, 669 kB) ]
пятница, 25 июля 2008 г.
суббота, 19 июля 2008 г.
четверг, 17 июля 2008 г.
Фонд "Научный потенциал" объявляет новый конкурс в области экономики на написание монографий. Будут приветствоваться работы, представляющие собой синтез экономики и социологии, экономики и правоведения и т.д.
среда, 16 июля 2008 г.
|Гуманитарные; общественные, социальные науки|
Конкурс по программе Фулбрайт-Кеннан проходит в рамках конкурса по программе Фулбрайта.
воскресенье, 6 июля 2008 г.
Kourbatova, Ekaterina V. MD, MPH, PhD *; Akovbyan, Vagan A. MD, PhD +; Chesson, Harrell W. PhD ++; Lytkina, Irina N. MD, PhD [S]; Dmitriev, Georgyi A. PhD [//]; Tikhonova, Lilia I. MD [P]; Koubanova, Anna A. MD, PhD [P]; Petukhova, Irina I. MD, PhD [P]; Latypova, Munira F. MD, PhD [S]; Aboymova, Olga A. MD [S]; Lewis, Joel S. #; Ryan, Caroline A. MD, MPH **; Shakarishvili, Anna MD ++
Sexually Transmitted Diseases. 35(5):453-460, May 2008.
by Noman Farooq, Program Assistant, Pakistan AIDS Control Federation
The demographic dividend is a rise in the rate of economic growth due to a rising share of working age people in a population. This usually occurs late in the demographic transition when the fertility rate falls and the youth dependency rate declines. During this demographic window of opportunity, output per capita rises. It has been argued that the demographic dividend played a role in the "economic miracles" of the East Asian Tigers and that the economic boom in Ireland in the 1990s (the Celtic tiger) was in part due to the legalization of contraception in 1979 and subsequent decline in the fertility rate . In Ireland the ratio of workers to dependents improved due to lower fertility but was raised further by increased female labor market participation and a reversal from outward migration of working age population to a net inflow. Africa, on the other hand, continues to have high fertility and youth dependency rates, which contribute to its economic stagnation. The magnitude of the demographic dividend appears to be dependent on the ability of the economy to absorb and productively employ the extra workers, rather than a pure demographic gift.
The youth stage of the life cycle is critical from a social perspective since it is the time when young people make key decisions in terms of their life style, living arrangements, partnering, and family formation. There are decisions among youth that have been significantly affected by globalization. Moreover globalization has facilitated the spread of Western cultural practices and exposed them to different ways of doing things. Undoubtedly this has seen them challenge many traditional authority structures and perhaps also experience disorientation caused by the dilemmas of day-to-day experience of clashes between traditional and modern values and norms.
Pakistan Demographics and Youth
Population growth and size have remained the focus of debate for centuries but the recent demographic transition in developing countries has made social scientists take note of the changing age structure of the population as well. As a result of declining population growth and consequent changes in age structure, the proportion of working-age population is increasing in most developing countries, with an associated decline in the dependent age population, offering a window of opportunity to these countries that is referred to as the "demographic dividend." Pakistan is also going through the demographic transition, and is experiencing a once-in-a-lifetime demographic dividend as the working-age population bulges and the dependency ratio declines.
For economic benefits to materialize, there is a need for policies dealing with education, public health, and those that promote labor market flexibility and provide incentives for investment and savings. On the contrary, if appropriate policies are not formulated, the demographic dividend might in fact be a cost, leading to unemployment and an unbearable strain on education, health, and old age security.
The number of youth relative to other age groups in today's Pakistan is higher than it has ever been, and arguably higher than it will ever be. This peak in youth population presents the community with a unique "window of opportunity," which, if seized, could propel growth and prosperity. But if we miss this opportunity, we could face widespread disillusionment, mass unemployment, and possibly a downturn in economic growth.
A substantial increase in the size of the labor force can lead to greater per capita output and economic growth, producing the "demographic dividend." The dividend most often occurs in countries late in the demographic transition, when birth rates are falling. Resources shift from dependent children and elders to youth -- the age group that comprises the bulk of the productive labor force. While the large number of youth can put pressure on schools, labor markets, and services, it is also noted that the declining dependency ratios of the demographic dividend also allow for increased investment in education and family welfare.
Young people are considered as more vulnerable to the HIV epidemic because of lack of guidance and information on sexuality and on safe-sex behavior. Young people are more susceptible to risk activities and adoption of unsafe sexual practices. In Pakistani society, open discussion on sex is considered shameful and sharing information about sex is discouraged culturally. Thus they are more susceptible to risk activities and adoption of unsafe sexual practices. Normally young people receive little or no guidance on sex by their elders and their source of information are generally inadequate and misleading. In general, people avoid disclosing their sex health problems and usually trust the quacks that pose themselves as experts on sexual health. Their counseling skills and the privacy that they provide to each client help them to flourish their business, but their practices are no more up to any medical standards and may be a serious threat to public health.
Youth as the most vulnerable age group for HIV infection needs awareness of anatomy and physiology of the reproductive system, psychological changes during puberty, sexual health, STDs, and HIV/AIDS. There is a need to change the attitudes of adults to provide information on the above. It’s time for expressing their opinion on the need for information to prevent HIV/AIDS as well as the importance of youth participation in the designing and the implementation of projects addressing youth.
Pakistan AIDS Control Federation
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